… to all sorts of pleasant and annoying noises in our environment?

Is traffic noise getting louder and louder and getting more and more resolution? Kind of a pisser this is.

Are you able to identify the many missing frequencies in the music they play at the gym or at Whole Foods [just fill in the places where YOU experience ambient music]. Kind of shocking that music can still be identified and sometimes even enjoyable in all its sparseness.

Do you find yourself hearing the various resonances in peoples voices and comparing their subtle differences to the singers you listen to most often? Cool huh?

… etc.

We are not X-Men (or Alphas) but we do enjoy a degree of extra sensory hearing power. Lovin’ it.

I am going to make a prediction here…

Most of my predictions are pretty good, but my timing is usually way, WAY off. Just sayin’.

I predict that most of the music and movies we have known will sometime in the not-to-distant future be… persona-non-Grata. Unwelcome to the average listener.

The logic goes like this. Many of you may know that Netflix had to raise their prices by 60% yesterday. Why? Because the Recording Industry is charging them much more than a year ago. Think: 10 times as much.

But we can all watch YouTube for free [maybe a commercial].

The idea is that there will be a time when there are so many bands and movie makers making content for free - AND that they will be so easy to find - that listening to someone LIKE Miles Davis for free will beat paying $100/month to corporations that sue little old ladies for downloading music and blind guys for downloading porn.

I think artists will make money not by selling content but by selling tickets to shows - and other methods by which they work with the music/movie lover instead of suing them. What a concept huh?

I think this could happen at any time - but is most likely in the next 5 to 10 years.

Before that we will probably see micro-payments where you pay a few cents per minute and can listen/see anything you want [Do you realize that at $1/song itunes is - if each song is 3 minutes long, they make $20/hour off of someone who is just exploring new music? -This is where.how we have always been kind of ripped off. Buying an album, hoping it will be good because you heard of one of the artists before or because of the cool cover…. been there, done that 1000s of times. Gets expensive and is usually unsatisfactory.]

I overheard the Pandora CEO justifying their market cap now that they are a publicly traded company and he said something that was very interesting to me.

Something to the effect that 60-80% of the time people do NOT want to choose what music they want to listen to, but have it chosen for them. Now, for the dominant internet radio website, it makes sense that they would say something like this. But is it true? And for however true it is, what does it mean for audiophiles?

Audiophiles who have nothing of audiophile quality that plays music for us [excluding friends and significant others].

Yeah, there are some nice tuners and some music servers out there - but hardly what one would call audiophile-quality.

Like, you know, why can’t a $100K turntable come with a mechanism - totally detached from but designed to work with the table - that randomly selects albums and plays them for us? Or a CD carousel player with a similar quality profile?

Anyway, I do think that it is a pain to pick out music to play all the time and I can understand why people accept a degradation in sonic performance in order to have someone else do it for them. Not sure any of this justifies Pandora’s stock price - but that is not going to bother me late at night.

[I know. Not many posts lately. The system sounded great and I stayed away from the paper and online rags But that only lasted so long… . There is a lot more to talk about… in future posts here.]

OK. This is kind of … well… I want to say bad things about Comcast, especially the move to digital cable TV. What this ultimately means for high-end audio is unclear, the rush of people abandoning TV for internet video will probably be good for computer audio - since people will be used to using a computer for ‘living-room type entertainment’ and bad for old-style components-in-the-livingroom setups. But do not know for sure. Obviously.

Anyway, the move to digital cable from analog has been disastrous. I have some programs still recorded on a TiVo from the analog cable days, and here are the differences:

* The audio is both brighter and more muffled at the same time. Words are MUCH harder to understand now. When the sound gets a little too loud then it is hard, edgy and harsh.

* Roughly half of the picture is chopped off (all the sides have been cropped off about 25%)

* Blacks and grays are now black (many darkish movies are now unwatchable)

* changing channels now takes about 5 to 10 seconds (presumably it is sending a signal over the internet for each button push, and they are very slow at responding, unlike Google search which responds immediately each letter you type. for example)

* As people migrate away from TV, the quality of the programming has declined to primarily appeal to the types of people who do not feel comfortable on the internet.

—————————–

Like most people, we have no choice but to use Comcast. We used to have a small cable company for Boulder County, Jones Intercable, but Comcast bought them out. What happens is that companies here in the U.S. can buy out a small competitor, take over their customer base, lower services and raise prices for those customers, and then use the resulting profits [and promise of future profits] to leverage and buy out yet another small competitor, repeating the process over and over until there are no small competitors left.

I do not really bemoan the end of TV, as such - but to have it end this way is kind of sad. I understand Google TV will offer internet video (YouTube, Vimeo, Dailymotion, etc) in a large screen format in our living-rooms, which is great but I do not see that having a high-end sound system hooked up to your video system is going to be of much benefit [it definitely WAS for analog cable, which I heartily enjoyed for 25 years; with digital cable it has been hit and miss… the source quality being so bad. Now with internet video… it isn’t as bad as digital cable, but it ain’t ‘CD quality’ which all of a sudden we are looking *UP* to… ? *sigh*].

This used to worry me quite a bit. Still does. But I now wonder if it should. [this goes for distributors, and to some extent dealers as well]

A prime example is we go to a show, and go into the manufacturer’s (or distributor’s) room, and their product is shown in a bad light, usually because the associated equipment is a poor, often VERY poor, choice. But the manufacturer acts like everything is fine sounding -that this is the way that their product usually sounds. But… we know better. Their product can sound wonderful.

Another prime example is the systems that a manufacturer uses in their factory to test. Is it another poor system? What about the system the manufacturer has at home? If they have one.

My concern has always been, if the manufacturer doesn’t have a top notch system to test their product on, how will they know how to make it sound its best? They are just designing in the dark, with no clue about just how good their equipment can sound and what their designs are requiring of us to make it sound its best.

[As an aside, Peter Qvortrup of Audio Note usually seems to have a level 5 (or better ) system in his office that he can hear things on [we all could hope and pray for such a system in our listening rooms] and Nordost, from what I understand, has everybody there take prototypes home and do a lot of listening - so they can get a real sense of the product on many different systems. I know most Software companies also use one or both of these approaches as well when developing new software.]

But… another perspective on all this is cars. Or musical instruments. You can’t just fly Van Halen in, or an Unser, and have them drive each one of your prototypes. In some sense they build the best thing that they can, and then expect that they will be used in ways, once they get into the field, that will take their products to the limit… and beyond.

So [when I feel like I need to stop worrying quite so much ] perhaps there is a nice balance here somewhere, between developing high end audio equipment with more or less a deaf ear - only looking at it from the technological point of view, and getting lots of feedback at each step of the development from people who like to push the boundaries of their product’s performance envelope.

We posted this cautionary blurb, the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, about how people should perhaps scrutinize what they read a little more carefully. That, essentially, a person or publication having a history of known erroneous reports, that a reader knows for a fact are in error, should really cause the reader to discount much of the other reports by that person or publication.

But the reverse is also true to some degree.

I was watching a talk on how the Venture Capital marketplace is being revolutionized, and realized that several of the bold statements he was making I knew to be true. This allowed me to raise the estimation I had that other statements he made, that I had no firm personal knowledge of, might also be true. [yes, of course this can, and is, abused all of the time by salespeople - but still, it is better than them saying things you know to be flat out wrong]

Similarly, with Mike Fremer and JV, they have made several bold [and not so bold] statements over the years that I knew to be true, and this raised, and continues to raise, my estimation that what they say [still, with very large grains of salt] about things I have not yet heard might also be true. In fact, one builds a mental model of people in general [including their motivations, which can be sticky ], ending up with a weighted probability that anything they say in a very narrow qualitative region may be true or not for oneself as well. This is diametrically opposed to many, many of the other reviewers who say things I know to be false, or say things that are completely nonsensical, or even more often, information-free [i.e. they are not really saying anything at all, when you get right down to it].

—————– OK. The previous post is copied here, so that you can read the above in the correct context, without having to scroll down ———–

[Hopefully people can abstract this somewhat humorously described concept below to understand that this quote is a reminder that we also have to take all high-end audio reviews with a grain of salt, to view them with trepidation and suspicion, to look askance when they are in our presence, to… - in particular those reviews by reviewers who have shown that they will sometimes pound the table and insist that ‘wet streets cause rain’].

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
—————————————————— Michael Crichton

I find the escalating prices of high end audio gear both frustrating and fascinating

For example, the first amp from Dan D’Agostino after he left Krell. It is $45K.

Another example is Tenor, who after a career of making more or less average priced high end amps in the $20K to $30K range went under for a bit and then came back with an amp in the $60K [hard to find a price] region.

There are many other examples. Soulution is another, although they have been around for a few years. The Continuum turntable another example.

And these are established brand names. Many, many others come from nowhere.

What is going on?

I tried to compare it to the clothing industry.

So, say, you have Versace and they come out with $1000 pair of jeans [maybe they have, I do not know]. We look at them and see a whole line of jeans [and many other types of clothing], at a wide range of prices and all fairly well-regarded, if expensive.

This is the model for most high-end audio manufacturers up to a few years ago.

OK.

Now, one can continue along this line of thought and imagine that a leading designer at Versace [as opposed to Target or Sears] leaves and creates their own line of boutique jeans. Maybe they then go and come out with their first pair of jeans and price it $1000. One looks at the pedigree/cred of the designer, and A) the quality of the jeans and …

… there will be some B) people who want their clothes to be one-off, or very unique, or to be the first to discover a new designer, and are willing to pluck down a large chunk of their money on the jeans.

The problem is that A) is quite a bit more evident for jeans than it is audio equipment [which requires lots of associated equipment to be evaluated, etc.] and B) [explorers] I do not understand, personally, but people do seem to want to own something new and unique, albeit all the time hoping that it becomes the height of [high-end audio] fashion and quite popular, making them the ‘discoverers’.

It is perhaps the case then that boutique high-end audio manufacturers that have just a few very high-priced products are catering to that small segment of us who enjoy shopping using the B) explorers approach. The problem might be that as soon as one of these becomes slightly popular and successful, the explorers will look elsewhere. They then sell the gear, which then saturates the used market.

So how to avoid this trap if you just have a few products? 1) Put out a new version of the product or 2) broaden your product line:

1) guarantees the immediate saturation of the used market - so it is a little scary if you only have a few products. Some of the previous owners will go elsewhere, but a few new owners will be added, seeing the product as maturing and more desirable now. But as versions increase, the customer base withers. Unless a miracle occurs, this kind of guarantees the manufacturer will not grow beyond a niche status and will eventually fade away.

2) this is expensive and time consuming. But it does build a sustainable brand for the long term.

So, here is a question. How many products does it take to make a ‘broad product line’?

Take it beyond audio again to… hybrid cars. The SmartCar versus Toyota’s hybrids. You can see how having several options allows a manufacturer to weather changes in fashion and economies.

As a counter example, however, take Porsche. They do not have many models [although fairly recently adding an inexpensive model and a SUV]

That is what I meant above by ‘unless a miracle occurs’. I am sure all boutique manufacturers want to be the Porsche of their niche.

But it takes both a miracle [IMHO] and work. Porsche has a long history. They race their cars. They featured them in movies. Famous people drive Porsche. They put a lot of work building their boutique brand. So I guess that gets us:

3) put a LOT of work into building your brand when it only has a very few products

———————-

I guess the whole point here is that this is really fringe behavior - where established brands are not treated any different than brand new ones, where the pedigree of the designers is not examined very closely, where products are not compared to each other so it remains this real mystery about just how good something really is.

On the other hand, of course, this is a lot of the charm of this industry too. Kind of the wild west with a lot of wild characters doing wild and crazy things. I have no problem keeping it wild, just so long as we all kind of understand and appreciate just how wild and crazy things really are.

OK. Well. The title kind of says it.

When a product starts appearing in one of these, the 3 big high-end audio mail order catalogs [we can all elusivedisc here too], what does it mean? What do people think?

Is this is kind of similar to them appearing in Ultimate Electronics (bankrupt now), Tweeters (bankrupt), Circuit City (uh…), Best Buy (still with us), …

Is it an act of desperation on the part of the manufacturer? Is it a vote of no-confidence in their dealer network? Is it the old extended ‘middle finger’ to their dealer network? Is it a way to have ‘internet sales’ without ‘being on the internet’?

Why do people buy from these catalogs? Do they have more confidence in a telephone jockey who has never heard any of this gear than in a dealer? Are they unable to find their dealer [what with all the geographical restrictions and many manufacturers not listing their dealers, requiring the audiophile to make an extra call]. Do audiophiles feel that dealers are just plain more obnoxious sales people than a catalog sales person?

Is it just the convenience of leafing through a catalog, or browsing an [well done] online store - combined with the ease of clicking Buy or just dialing the number printed on every page - that allows these catalogs to make sales?

Ultimate Electronics (Sound Track) had good catalogs. But they died. However, they were put out, I think twice a year, not every month. So maybe that is the difference. I do not think Amazon killed them - the prices weren’t all that different, and the convenience factor of shopping locally is huge. The Ultimate Electronics sales people were often creepy, though, which can be a bother.

Anyway, I see brands in these catalog, some of which we carry even, and we hear various reports of how these mail order catalogs DO and/or DO NOT [all insider info we have heard to date is that they DO NOT sell much gear - but let’s ignore that for a bit] generate any sales. And it is just a strange kind of eco-system, separate from the fray of actually listening to music, playing music for other people, meeting people, making friends, investing in equipment to show people, etc. and in some sense they should not be very successful.

But we do see various brands that had not previously been associated with ‘mail order’ in these catalogs - new ones every month [and some dropping by the wayside]. And it always makes us wonder…. why? Are manufactures trying to sell mass quantities through these catalogs, giving up on their withering dealer network?

Should dealers themselves be mailing monthly catalogs out? Should they have online ’stores’, perhaps without carts, but offering the audiophile a pleasant browsing learning experience? Perhaps all us dealers should get together and create a giant - UN-mail order SUPER catalog for the rest of us - automatically routing audiophile’s inquiries and sales / pickups to their local dealer?

Thinking about car manufacturers (like audi.com) they do some of this, and even some high end audio manufacturers do some of this, but perhaps they need to add a Buy Now button, offering no fuss no muss buying and local pickup. Then they would actually support their dealers, the new internet economy, and their customers - as opposed to running from the internet and disenfranchising their dealer network - which is what is happening now when they sign up with the mail order catalog industry.

That is if the DO make money… that these mail order catalogs DO sell equipment (and not just music). What if they DO NOT?

Manufactures definitely appreciate the additional eyeballs / mailing lists that these places have built up. But they do not have as many eyeballs as one might think [about 6 to 10 times as much as this blog does on a good month].

In the end, after all this, are these catalogs nothing but audio porn? People read. People lust. People wish fervently. But in the end - nothing real comes of it?

[These catalogs give Neli heartburn. However, I do not mind them at all; they are kind of like a hard copy brochure-ware-type show report with a lot of photos of gear and some facts. So I just thought I’d explore the world of mail order catalogs here a little…]

[Hopefully people can abstract this somewhat humorously described concept below to understand that this quote is a reminder that we also have to take all high-end audio reviews with a grain of salt, to view them with trepidation and suspicion, to look askance when they are in our presence, to… - in particular those reviews by reviewers who have shown that they will sometimes pound the table and insist that ‘wet streets cause rain’].

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
—————————————————— Michael Crichton

.. on the oil-spill.

Or, more precisely on the coverage of all the birds and crabs etc. covered in oil.

See, all these people are upset… upset that some of these animals might die…

…upset that they might die and nobody gets to EAT THEM that is.

Meat-eating announcers moaning over ‘innocent’ animals being potentially harmed by what is to large extent an act of God, who then go home and eat cow tummies and chicken breasts that night which we slaughter by the millions.

Oh, the irony. The Irony!

:-)

[Sorry, I know sanctimonious TV news is all the rage . We’re green and love the environment more than most - putting our money where our sentiments are - but seriously… if you ain’t vegetarian (or vegan) you should probably focus your whining on the plight of the fisherman and tourist industry - and leave the whining about animals to us veggies.]

;-)

[now that Neli is logging in and editing my posts - let’s just see how long this post stays here ]

[yes, back to audio. We have a few CD reviews coming up, and the M9Phono / S9 have just returned to the big system …]